The Improvement in NCAA Division 1 Basketball Free Throw Accuracy Since 1987, and the Counter-Productive Increased Reliance on Three-Point Shots

Balancing two-point shooting with three-point shooting

Abstract

We examine two diametrically opposite levels of action on a basketball court to address incorrect concepts about both. When a free throw is taken, all action stops. The fouled player steps unopposed to the free throw line to shoot at the open basket. A specific player may have flaws in technique, but consistent improvement across many games for many players at first consideration seems unlikely. A plot of yearly free throw shooting accuracy from 1987 through 2022 tells a different story. At the opposite end of the basketball activity spectrum is the three-point shot. Since 1987 when the top division of US college basketball created the opportunity to score three points for shots taken outside of an arc, we see much effort being taken to shoot increasing numbers of three-point shots, given the obvious advantage of scoring three points instead of two. Of course, a team with accurate three-point shooters should exploit that option. Late in a game when a team is behind, again, the three-point shot should be exploited. However, we ask if it is good practice as a rule for teams to become infatuated with shooting that shot. We will display significant flaws with that strategy.