Technical and Program Component scores frozen together: Difficulty bias and outcome prediction in international figure skating

Abstract

Ideally, technical and non-technical scores in judged sports would be independent.  Any functional relationship between technical and non-technical scores would indicate that these scores are dependent upon each other.  The International Judging System (IJS) was introduced by the International Skating Union in 2003 as a way to remove some of the highly publicized biases that were present in the previously used judging system.  In this article, we describe an unexpected linear relationship between Technical Element and Program Component scores in all four figure skating disciplines at 2018-2019 season competitions hosted by US Figure Skating and International Skating Union.  These relationships imply difficulty bias within the scoring system and the possibility of outcome prediction of the Program Component scores based on the Technical Element scores.  Furthermore, we will also illustrate scoring imbalances across technical elements which effectively render jumps as the most important element in singles and pairs skating.  These findings have profound implications for sport governance and can be used for strategic advantage.